Welcome to ChanceBot.com

What is ChanceBot?

ChanceBot is a sports simulation and analysis website. Using simulation and historical data, ChanceBot calculates the probability of various outcomes in the NFL, NBA and NHL. Overall the site is based on the Monte Carlo method of calculating probabilities.

By simulating all games left in the season and using relative team strengths to determine the winner, ChanceBot calculates how likely each team is to make the playoffs, win their division or win the championship.

Cool, but what can ChanceBot tell me?

For each sport, there are five primary data views on ChanceBot: 1) Enhanced standings; 2) Team dashboards; 3) League overview; 4) Playoff analysis; and 5) Division stats.

Enhanced standings provide traditional league standings including current wins and losses, games back and winning percentage. Enhanced standings also include each team's chance of making the playoffs and advancing through the various playoff rounds.

Team dashboards provide a more detailed data set for each team. In addition to all the data from the enhanced standings. Additionally, you can see each team's chances of winning a particular seed in the playoffs and the impact of upcoming games.

The league overview section gives a high-level view of the league. The data presented may change by sport.

The playoff analysis section shows the most likely playoff match-ups.

Division stats provide a brief overview of how strong each division is and how competitive the race is for first place.

This sounds like a lot of numbers. Are the stats explained in more detail?

Yes, at the top of each page where statistics are displayed, you can click on the link that says "Show Stats Help" to get detailed descriptions of what is presented on that page.

Are the game outcomes decided by random chance?

Yes, they are decided by random chance. But the chance of winning is not split evenly between the teams. Outcome probabilities are decided by a combination of calculated team strength, home-field advantage and historical data. Teams that have performed better throughout the season will have a greater chance of winning a game than will teams that have done poorly.

How frequently are the statistics updated?

Except where noted, the data on ChanceBot.com is updated daily.